We are F#cked

We are F#cked. Here’s Why.

by Guy R. McPherson, Professor Emeritus, University of Arizona

There are many reasons we are f#cked. As I am tossing and turning in my half-hearted attempts to sleep each night, I recall a few more reasons that came to mind earlier during the day. It’s small wonder I have great difficulty sleeping.

In this short essay, I will focus only on two reasons Homo sapiens lies on the edge of extinction. First, there is the aerosol masking effect. A reduction in industrial activity leads rapidly and directly to rapid heating of the planet. How rapid? Professor James E. Hansen has indicated in many presentations, interviews, and peer-reviewed papers that aerosols fall out of the atmosphere in about five days. Regional impacts were well-documented in the wake of COVID-19. Fortunately, for both us and the living planet, those impacts were not global.

After the aerosol masking effect, about which peer-reviewed papers have appeared in the literature since 1929, there is the rate of environmental change. Ecologists have long understood that the rate of environmental change is the central factor allowing the continuation—or not—of species and populations. Species and populations cannot persist in locations where environmental change is occurring too rapidly. After all, every species has evolved by natural selection to perfectly match the environment in which the species is embedded. The same applies to populations of species. The aerosol masking effect is one means by which the environment can change very rapidly. However, it is not the only means.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change addressed the rate of environmental change in its 8 October 2018 report, Global Warming of 1.5°. Specifically, the IPCC indicated that the ongoing rate of human-driven change exceeds the rate of change driven by geophysical and biosphere forces that have underlain past changes. Based on two peer-reviewed papers, the take-home line is: “… even abrupt geophysical events do not approach current rates of human-driven change.” In other words, the ongoing rate of human-driven change is the fastest in planetary history, far exceeding that in the wake of the asteroid that struck the Yucatán Peninsula about 66 million years ago and drove dinosaurs and many other species to extinction.

Global Warming of 1.5° was released by the IPCC more than six years ago. Government officials, media outlets, and paid climate scientists have had a long time to tell the masses we are in the midst of a horrifyingly rapid Mass Extinction Event. I’m sure they’ll get around to it soon.

An article at Phys.Org on 13 February 2024 is titled New evidence changes key ideas about Earth’s climate history. Here’s the lede: “A new study published in Science resolves a long-standing scientific debate, and it stands to completely change the way we think about Earth’s climate evolution.”

What’s the long-standing debate? Past studies have concluded Earth has experienced very warm temperatures during the last two billion years. In contrast, this new paper in Science indicates that Earth has had a relatively stable and mild climate during that time.

The peer-reviewed paper in Science was published 8 February 2024 and titled Oxygen isotope ensemble reveals Earth’s seawater, temperature, and carbon cycle history. Both authors are affiliated with the University of Waikato (Tauranga) at the Bay of Plenty in Tauranga, New Zealand. The lead author, a Professor at the University of Waikato, said upon release of the paper in Science: “We can’t use our planet as a large-scale lab. Looking into the past provides a way to understand the processes that regulate the Earth’s climate.”

According to the Phys.Org paper, the lead author and a PhD student working with him used five unique datasets based on different rock types. These included shale, iron oxide, carbonate, silica, and phosphate. More than 30,000 data points spanning Earth’s multi-billion-year history were derived from these geochemical records. As a result, the study represents the most comprehensive collection of the geochemical record developed so far.

The research study is by far the most comprehensive one based on oxygen isotopes. These isotopes of oxygen, distinct from the isotope we depend upon for our lives, allow the study of these different rock types across an enormous period of geological time.

A key finding of the research is that it disproves the idea that ocean temperatures exceeded 60° C prior to about half a billion years ago, before the rise of land plants and animals. Rather, the new information presented in this paper indicates a relatively cool and stable ocean temperature of about 10° C. According to the lead author of the Science paper: “The results suggest that the process of clay formation may have played a key role in regulating climate on early Earth and sustaining the temperate conditions that allowed for the evolution and proliferation of life on Earth.” The process of clay formation strongly contributed to a cool, stable temperature on Earth. As a result, the process of clay formation strongly contributed to “the evolution and proliferation of life on Earth.”

Well, that’s the long, and mostly short of it. As we go, so goes Earth (and all Earth’s flora and fauna).

…

At the level of society, there is very little any of us can do. However, I can think of one job that is worth our collective attention. There may be others. Working to cask and contain nuclear material represents one of our duties as planetary citizens. Leaving in our wake more than 450 nuclear reactors and more than 1,200 pools of spent nuclear fuel has the potential to destroy all life on Earth. I can imagine no greater obligation than cleaning up the worst of our messes as we exit the planetary stage. Even if this task proves impossible, as I suspect it will, taking it on demonstrates our worthiness as the last individuals of our species.—Dr. Guy McPherson